Food grains, including cereals and pulses, are essential for food security, nutrition and economic stability, but pulses hold special significance due to their high protein content, environmental benefits and role in sustainable agriculture. Pulses are a rich source of plant-based protein (20 to 25%), fiber and essential amino acids. Additionally, pulses play a crucial role in ensuring nutritional security, particularly in a cereal-based vegetarian diet consumed by a large population (Pathak et al., 2017).

       
The main pulses cultivated in India include bengal gram, red gram, lentil, black gram, green gram, lablab bean, moth bean, horse gram, pea, grass pea, cowpea and broad bean. Among these, chickpea, pigeon pea, mung bean, urd bean and lentil are the most popular and widely consumed varieties (Gowda et al., 2013). In the year 2024-25, India’s total pulse production was estimated to be 252.38 lakh tonnes (Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, 2025), reflecting the country’s significant role in global pulse production. Despite being the largest producer, domestic demand continues to outpace supply. As a result, India imported approximately 6.7 million tonnes of pulses in 2024-25 (Business Standard, 2025) to bridge the gap between production and consumption, ensuring food security and price stability in the market. The present study aims to determine the compound annual growth rate of the area, production and productivity of pulses in India for the period 2000-01 to 2023-24 and to analyze the instability in pulse production.

This study was conducted in the Department of Agricultural Economics, Uttar Banga Krishi Viswavidyalaya, Majhian, Patiram, D. Dinajpur, West Bengal, India during 2024-25. The study is based on secondary data collected over a span of 24 years, from 2000-01 to 2023-24. To effectively capture variations and trends over time, the study period has been systematically divided into two distinct sub-periods: 2000-01 to 2011-12 and 2012-13 to 2023-24. Information on the area, production and productivity of crops was collected from the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India. To examine the growth rate and instability in different variables, the compound annual growth rate and the Cuddy-Della Valle Index were used, respectively.
 
Compound annual growth rate
 
CAGR is a measure used to calculate the average annual growth of a value over a specified period. CAGR was employed by fitting exponential growth function of the form:
 

Y^t =ab^t

 
Where,
Y_t = Dependent variable (area/production/productivity).
a = Intercept term.
b = Regression coefficient.
t = Time trend.
       
The per cent compound annual growth rate was derived using the relationship:
 

 CAGR (r) = (Antilog b -1) * 100

 
Where,
r = Compound growth rate.
 
Cuddy-della valle index
 
CDVI is a statistical measure used to quantify the instability or fluctuations in time-series data. It is expressed as:
 

CDVI = CV * √  (1 - R²)

 
Where,
CV = Coefficient of Variation = (SD/ Mean) *100.
R² = Coefficient of determination from time trend regression adjusted by the number of degrees of freedom.

Growth of area, production and productivity of lentil in India
 
Data in Table 1 shows major state-wise growth rates of Lentil. Strong growth has consistently been shown by Jharkhand, with a notable increase in all the aspects. Rajasthan’s positive growth in Phase I followed by negative growth in Phase II is consistent with prior evidence of high instability in pulses within the state (Sood et al., 2020). A massive decline in area and production has been observed in the Haryana, which might be attributed to several reasons, such as adverse weather patterns, fluctuations in market prices, competition from alternative crops and rising cultivation expenses (Kumar et al., 2018).


 
Growth of area, production and productivity of green gram in India
 
Table 2 represents major state-wise growth rates of Green gram. A significant increase in production and productivity is being led by Madhya Pradesh. Balanced growth across all the aspects has been shown by Odisha. A decline in production is being experienced by states like Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Maharashtra. The cultivation area for green gram in Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra is being decreased due to several factors, such as competition from alternative crops, economic and market limitations and environmental issues such as climatic conditions and drought spells (Mohan, 2017; Wasnik, 2022 and More and Khairnar, 2023).


 
Growth of area, production and productivity of bengal gram in India
 
Table 3 embodies major state-wise growth rates of Bengal gram. Gujarat’s Bengal gram gains reinforce national trends indicating enhanced pulse stability in the post-2015 era (Singh et al., 2022). Maharashtra also demonstrates strong performance, with notable gains in area, production and productivity. In contrast, decline in area and production but modest productivity gains, are being experienced by Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana. A steady decrease in the cultivation area has been recorded in Haryana and Punjab over the past two decades because of the prevailing preference for the wheat-rice cropping system, which is supported by policies and infrastructure (Ankita et al., 2018 and Singh and Bansal, 2020).


 
Growth of area, production and productivity of total pulses in India
 
Table 4 displays major state-wise growth rates of total pulses. Significant gains in productivity are being exhibited by the North-Eastern states like Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur due to improved production technologies (Gogoi et al., 2022 and Kumar et al., 2025). Positive growth in area, production and productivity is being shown by the western states of India, including Gujarat, Rajasthan and Maharashtra (Mohre and Mitra, 2022). However, challenges are being faced by states like Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Goa, Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir, Kerala and Sikkim, with declines in area.



Instability index of lentil
 
Instability of area, production and productivity of Lentil is represented on Table 5. States like Haryana, Rajasthan and Jharkhand are facing high fluctuations in area and production, due to a combination of environmental factors like drought and erratic rainfall, limited access to improved seeds and inputs (Ahmad et al., 2018 and Kumar et al., 2023). In contrast, states like Assam and Bihar are relatively more stable. Though the instability of area under lentil at national level is low, states like Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Rajasthan and West Bengal are exhibiting high level of instability in area.


 
Instability index of green gram
 
Instability under green gram is shown in table 6. The high instability in Rajasthan’s green gram matches recent studies that say these fluctuations are mainly due to cost and profitability problems (Sharma et al., 2024). In contrast, Bihar and Odisha demonstrate relative stability, with productivity instability below 12%. Assam’s productivity is stable (9.39%), but its production is marked by high volatility (70.27%). Overall, states of  West Bengal, Punjab and Haryana are exhibiting higher instability in respect of area and production, which is exorbitantly higher than that of instability prevailing at national level.



Instability index of bengal gram
 
Instability under Bengal gram is displayed in Table 7. Gujarat’s area and production instability witnessed highest instability which might be due to farmers are shifting from pulses like Bengal gram to more profitable crops like cotton, leading to fluctuations in pulse production and cultivated area (Mehta, 2013). In contrast, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh and West Bengal have relatively low instability, with productivity CDVI values below 12%. Though the instability of all the three aspects at national level are low, state like Gujarat is exhibiting very high level of instability in area as well as production.



Instability index of total pulses
 
Instability of area, production and productivity of Total pulses is embodied on Table 8. Tamil Nadu, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Mizoram and Himachal Pradesh experience notable instability, indicating substantial fluctuations in yield levels. Jammu and Kashmir displays exceptionally high production and productivity instability, suggesting extreme volatility in yield performance, which might be due to due to unfavourable climate, cultivation on marginal lands and infrastructure challenges (Ahlawat et al., 2016 and Kumar et al., 2019). States such as Bihar, Uttarakhand, Nagaland and Jharkhand demonstrate relatively stable productivity, reflecting steadier agronomic or climatic conditions and possibly better adoption of improved technologies. States like Goa, Kerala, Punjab and Sikkim have seen significant fluctuations in pulse area and production might be due to climate change, socio-economic factors and agricultural infrastructure issues. Implementing region-specific interventions, such as enhanced irrigation facilities, soil health management and crop insurance schemes, may help mitigate instability and enhance pulse production nationwide.


       
Assam showed improvement in both lentil and bengal gram, with positive growth in area, production and productivity and instability indices below 20%. Similar results of positive growth rate of lentil and bengal gram, especially on the post 2010- period was reported by (Barman et al., 2020). Uttar Pradesh performed well in green gram, combining moderate growth with low instability. For total pulses, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Nagaland exhibited steady growth across all parameters with low variability, highlighting their potential for pulse-based agricultural development. These results are comparable with the results revealed by Mishra et al. (2022) and Nagaveni et al. (2024). The analysis shows that Jharkhand (for green gram area), has a non-significant growth rate with a very high instability index, indicating the area under green gram fluctuates a lot from year to year. Despite exhibiting the significant growth rates in all three aspects, the state of Jharkhand shows comparatively higher instability in area and production which may be attributed to the higher instability in area and production in the first phase of the study. Bihar (for lentil productivity) also has a non-significant positive growth rate with moderately high instability, these results align with results revealed by Ahmad et al., 2018. Also, the analysis reveals that Haryana, Rajasthan andhra Pradesh and Punjab are the key states exhibiting both significant negative growth rates in pulses (area, production or productivity) and high instability indices, indicating that these states not only face declining trends but also experience large year-to-year fluctuations. Similar findings have been reported by Kumari and Malik (2023), who highlighted persistent negative growth and high instability in pulses production in Haryana andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan, whereas Punjab’s pulses area and production have sharply declined over five decades (1970-71 to 2020-21), with summer moong being the only pulse showing positive growth (Aggarwal and Sharma, 2023). Pulse production still faces major bottlenecks, such as limited scope for area expansion and persistent yield gaps, even though new and improved varieties are available (Shukla et al., 2020). Addressing these structural issues through targeted interventions is essential for ensuring sustained growth.

The study concludes that negative significant growth rates in area, production and productivity of different states for various pulse crops are generally associated with comparatively higher instability in these parameters, whereas, positive growth rates are sometimes accompanied by lower levels of instability, but this is not a universal trend several instances show moderate to high fluctuations even with positive growth.  There is no definite relationship between non-significant growth rate and instability of the three parameters for the period of study.

The present study was supported by Department of Agricultural Economics, Director of Research, Uttar Banga Krishi Viswavidyalaya.
 
Disclaimers
 
The views and conclusions expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of their affiliated institutions. The authors are responsible for the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, but do not accept any liability for any direct or indirect losses resulting from the use of this content.
 
Informed consent
 
Not applicable. This study does not involve human or animal subjects.

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest regarding the publication of this article. No funding or sponsorship influenced the design of the study, data collection, analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.